The Fiesta Bowl matchup between Baylor and Central Florida could be a real bust for Greater Phoenix in terms of economic impact.

This face-off between the champions of the Big 12 and American Athletic Conference (football schools formerly in the Big East) emerged tonight from the dying machinations of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS), which will be replaced next season by a selection committee. The teams will play at 6:30 p.m. local time at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale – home of the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals.

According to CBS-5 in Phoenix, the Fiesta Bowl and its sibling, the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl in Tempe, generate more than $200 million from out-of-town visitors.

Baylor was one of the hottest teams the second half of the season, even making the periphery of BCS Championship speculation. The Bears can light up the scoreboard, but the conservative fans of the Baptist school located in Waco, Texas, are unlikely to spark the nightlife in Phoenix and Scottsdale. It’s also unclear how many Bear fans will make the bowl trip. With approximately 12,500 undergraduates, Baylor University is smaller than most of its BCS counterparts – and the same could be said for its alumni base. One small silver lining: Baylor fans may enjoy the family friendly atmosphere of the Westgate Entertainment District adjacent to the stadium. A packed Westgate would boost businesses there, yield additional sales taxes for Glendale and, possibly, draw additional folks for the NHL’s Phoenix Coyotes, who have a home game the night before at Jobing.Com Arena in Westgate.

The University of Central Florida might be the demographic opposite of Baylor and should worry Fiesta Bowl officials for different reasons. The school is a baby by university standards. It opened in 1963 as Florida Tech and rebranded itself UCF in1978. Big it’s a big baby: Based in Orlando, Fla., it has more than 50,000 undergraduates spread among 10 campuses. The Knights have competed at college football’s highest level since 1996, less than two decades. As the program grew, it became a poster child for conference realignment. UCF has played in three conferences in 11 years: the Mid-American Conference (2002-04), Conference USA (2005-12) and the AAC (2013).

With that history, UCF hasn’t had much time to grow a fan base compared with other BCS programs. Also, student bodies spread among multiple campus tend to have less school spirit unless each campus has its own teams. But the elephant in the room for Fiesta Bowl officials is that Central Florida is, well, in central Florida! Orlando is a long way from Phoenix, and folks who live there don’t need to visit Arizona for warm weather.

The bottom line for Greater Phoenix sports tourism? UCF fans may not show up for the Fiesta Bowl in significant numbers, while Baylor supporters may add fewer dollars to the local economy than other schools’ fans.

It wouldn’t be the first time. The University of Connecticut had a hard time selling its allotment of tickets in 2011. According to the Phoenix Business Journal, UConn’s game against Oklahoma had a lower economic impact than the same year’s Insight (now BWW) Bowl between Iowa and Missouri. Together, the bowls had a combined $123 million economic impact

This year, unfortunately, the BWW Bowl lost out on a lucrative opportunity to reunite Oklahoma and Nebraska. Instead, it will host an odd matchup between Kansas State and Michigan.

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Update (2/25/14): The Arizona Republic reported that the Fiesta Bowl and its related entities lost a collective $1.3 million in 2012-13.

Tags: AAC, American Athletic Conference, Baylor, Big 12, CBS-5, Central Florida, Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Phoenix, UCF, University of Phoenix Stadium